The Patz McMillan Team

The term "trend spotting" has come to describe teasing out identifiable patterns from statistics created by consumer and business behaviour -- like they always know what's best for them and do what's best for them. Urban sprawl is one example of a trend based on patterns of development and home buying that converged to create what is now an acknowledged problem for society on many levels.

Construction time frames are measured in years and development often in decades, so that, by the time a need is visible, we are years, perhaps decades, away from real-estate solutions.

As The Age Wave rolls on, there are challenges ahead that call for forward thinking -- looking ahead with an eye to improvement, beyond invisible restrictions, stereotypes, traditions and patterns imposed by past experience. In Canada, "The Age Wave" is the collective term for 10 million Baby Boomers, those born between 1947 and 1966. The most significant thing about this ever-changing mosaic of diverse individuals is not their increasing age, but the many decades of active living ahead for most of them. Never before have we had a segment of the population like this, and one that is present in such significant numbers -- 25 per cent, or even more than 50 per cent, of the residents in some communities.

We've never built housing for them either, nor specifically for the decades-long, active-living third lifetime that replaces the handful of quiet years that was traditional retirement. Few people want the lifestyle of their parents or grandparents. These realities foretell many changes in how we live. With the desired shift in lifestyle, comes a dramatic impetus for change to what is often called "retirement housing" or "seniors housing."

Coincidently, the business world, particularly the retail sector, is beginning to understand how shopping and communities will and must change. Combine these facts, and the opportunities could inspire powerful new, forward thinking.

In this new context, one useful trend would be a movement toward large, multi-building enclosed spaces. This would foster active, involved living and protect our citizens from the extremes of weather and from breathing air that is increasingly bad for us. These healthy inner spaces may eventually replace the winter snowbird exodus, a seasonal migration that is already considered too expensive, too stressful or too dangerous by many Canadians.

Technology will enable the creation of climate controlled live-work areas that serve as home-base for village-sized populations and become "downtown" for surrounding neighbourhoods. Covered shopping centres, glassed atria, underground streets and domed sports arenas are just the beginning of our climate-controlled capability. A "green" slant should foster cost-effective solutions for heating and cooling -- functions that can make covering large areas an expensive venture.

We are in transition from 20th century stereotypes that segregated the elderly to 21st century cross-generation collaborations. Shopping malls, with their large expanses of under-developed prime real estate, may represent a progressive environment for integrating commerce and housing for all life stages, to the benefit and improvement of both.

"In 1995, we used to build studios, and, if we built sixty units, we built sixty 300- square-foot studios," said Robert Ezer, CEO of Chartwell Seniors Housing Real Estate Investment Trust (Chartwell REIT), explaining that although the "seniors housing" label remains, what it currently describes is very different. "People's tastes have changed. Now, we build one and two-bedroom units with art studios, gyms, ice cream parlours ... . When we say 'state of the art,' we mean fully modernized and [with] the highest fire safety standard."

Ezer clarifies that to Chartwell, a "senior" is someone between about age 70 and 90, with the average age of residents in their rental accommodation about 85. Monthly rents average about C$3500.

Chartwell REIT owns and manages seniors' housing properties and is "currently the largest participant in the Canadian seniors housing business." Spectrum Seniors Housing Development LP is the private developer that functions as the REIT development arm.

In a December 2006 media release, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust announced a joint venture with Chartwell and Spectrum to develop "a mixed-use building featuring approximately 144 seniors housing units, along with approximately 14,000 square feet of retail street-front space." The new 5- or 6- storey building will share a Mississauga, Ontario, RioCan site with existing retail space. RioCan owns and manages Canada's largest portfolio of shopping centres: 204 properties, including 8 under development, with an aggregate of approximately 51 million square feet.

According to Ezer, the residential building, with retail on its main floor, will be connected to the pre-existing retail section of the site by an "unimpeded, covered walkway." They have just begun the design phase, so details concerning the housing-retail connection have not been finalized. Hardly a fully-integrated, enclosed community, but a strong example of keeping housing in the centre of the action.

Through RioCan's current land use intensification program, it continues to redevelop existing retail centres to maximize their value. This policy offers a solution to Chartwell's challenge of locating ideal sites for the "new, state of the art retirement homes" it plans to build across Canada. No plans have been made beyond their first joint venture.

Urban centres like Toronto and Victoria are faced with shortages of development land for traditional shopping malls and housing, so why not combine these potentially inter-dependent sectors? As an added benefit, mall businesses would gain "live-in" customers, and even employees, while residents of the "mall homes" would have car-free shopping in their backyard.

Perhaps an ideal trend for 2007 would be toward those who search out room for improvement while others rail against change.


Written by PJ Wade

The Patz McMillan Team E-mail: patzmcmillan@remax.net Web: http://www.patzmcmillan.com 604-727-8227

RE/MAX Crest Realty (Westside) 604-684-6155 #2 - 1012 Beach Ave. Vancouver BC V6E 1T7